How long can Russia wage war against Ukraine?

The short answer is that Russia can keep fighting for a very long time, because it can cover most of its needs from its own defense industrial base and because it can still export energy to a few key partners. This is quite different from saying that Russia’s economy won’t suffer from the war; military production displaces civilian production, workers tend to work harder for a currency that’s worth something, and the inflation that will likely result from a wartime economy will almost undoubtedly generate social unrest. But Russia can manage its own money supply and its domestic financial system through tools that Moscow possesses and that Washington cannot readily interfere with. The Russian government’s ability to print money means that the domestic economy will continue to function in some fashion, notwithstanding the impact of the sanctions. Iran, for example, has managed very moderate growth despite an almost complete cut-off from the global financial system.

Still, the prospect of a long war means nothing at all positive for the Russian economy. War diverts young, productive workers from economically useful tasks to soldiering, which often involves dying or suffering permanently disabling injuries. The need to feed the war machine will distort Russia’s economy by shifting production away from economically viable industries. Hyperinflation may result from the printing of too much money to chase too few consumer goods. If the war ended tomorrow it would take Russia years to undo the damage to its economy, and there is no indication that the war will end tomorrow.