The coming food shortages

Looking at the chart above, substantial portions of African food imports come from Russia and Ukraine. Devastation from the war and sanctions will cause difficulty filling the gap in the second half of 2022. It’s essential to take notice of the countries at the bottom of the chart, particularly Egypt…

Egypt is a country whose government’s stability depends substantially on inexpensive bread. Despite promises of increasing domestic planting of wheat, increasing production substantially is difficult for Egypt. The problem is exacerbated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam filling that threatens the Nile River zone’s food production. This situation can create a perfect storm where the Egyptian government faces food shortages and a disagreeable Ethiopian government. Pundits toss the word instability around a lot; however, this is an actual example of a severe crisis, especially when coupled with other upheavals in the Middle East and Africa.

Currently, India is rising to the occasion and is in final talks with Egypt to start exporting wheat. India is displaying its ability to act like a major power, having raised its relative share of world wheat exports from 0.14% to 0.54% in 2020. India’s total wheat production constitutes around 14.0% of the world’s total wheat production; however, most of that wheat is consumed domestically. It is not likely that India can substantially replace the disrupted wheat imports of these African nations.