In other words, Hu advocates that instead of trying to overthrow the liberal order, China become its chief enforcer — thus setting itself up to take over as the centerpiece of that order, as the U.S. once took over from Britain. He’s only talking about Russia/Ukraine here, of course, but it’s easy to imagine applying the same idea to China’s other problems — embracing Western mRNA vaccines while working to develop its own capability in the future, and focusing its industrial policy on scientific and technical leadership instead of trying to crush any industry that doesn’t have obvious direct benefits for hard power.

It’s a smart strategy. It would work. The U.S. could not long hold its pole position within the liberal global order against a fully industrialized high-tech country with four times its population; as the global guardian of liberalism, China would naturally be first among equals.

But I’m not holding my breath for Chinese leaders or nationalists to see the light here — Hu’s essay was quickly banned on Chinese social media. As for Xi Jinping, he seems to have been getting a bit high on his own supply of propaganda — he truly came out of 2020 believing that China had worked out a superior system and that liberalism was now an albatross around his enemies’ necks. He appears set on indulging his conservative nostalgic vision of what his country ought to look like.

Nor is Xi the only important actor here. An angry, chauvinistic nationalism has become a deeply rooted force in China’s society.