Back in 2016, there was a lot of talk about the group of voters we like to call “double haters” — those who disliked both of their options in that election. And they were legion, given that each candidate was among the most unpopular presidential nominees in recent history. About 6 in 10 voters disliked Trump, and about 6 in 10 disliked Hillary Clinton as well. The 1 in 5 voters who liked neither wound up favoring Trump by plenty — and just enough to elect him.

With President Biden falling significantly in the polls, this group now looms nearly as large as it did back then. And they hold pretty different views depending upon which election you’re talking about.

On the one hand, Bender notes, they favor Republicans over Democrats by 13 points in the upcoming 2022 midterms. On the other, when given a choice in a rematch of the 2020 election, they pick the Democratic president over the Republican former president by almost the same margin: 12 points.

The upshot is that Republicans lead 46 percent to 41 percent in the 2022 “generic ballot,” but the 2024 race is a dead heat, at 45 percent apiece.

When I saw this, I wondered if other polls demonstrated a similar dynamic. And they do — to some extent.