It is now clear that the Russian military lacks the troop capacity, combined arms coordination, logistics trains, and morale to sustain a high-tempo war throughout Ukraine. But the more Russian units that are taken off the battlefield, the more limited the means of Russian commanders to pursue their objectives. This will exacerbate tension with higher commanders back in Belarus and Russia who are under pressure from Putin to deliver results. This is to say nothing of the impact on morale for those soldiers who will now be ordered to follow their fallen comrades into what they will assume are prospectively doomed battles. In contrast, the Ukrainian military morale is soaring.

The annihilation of Russian platoons, and thus the shared suffering of families who know each other, poses additional problems on the home front. The personal association of tragedy will fuel anger and make it far harder for Putin’s propagandists to present this war as a limited security operation. Certainly, Putin is not going to be able to keep arguing, as he did on Thursday, that his operation is “going to plan.” As the body count mounts and the obvious failure to make strategic progress becomes clearer, Putin will face escalating protests. The harsh response of Russian police forces against the limited protests that have occurred thus far underlines the Kremlin’s fear in this regard.