Beyond the posturing debates over whether Putin does or does not have a “soul,” the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment (ONA) undertook a study in 2008 that examined his mental state. USA Today obtained that study (and one from 2011) and published the findings in 2015. Controversially, it speculated that the Russian leader has an “autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions.” Researchers pointed to Asperger’s syndrome, though they couldn’t prove that theory without having done a brain scan. One psychiatry professor cited in the study later walked back the specific claim of Asperger’s.

The armchair analysis was largely based on videos of Putin and attracted scrutiny at the time. It must be taken with salt grains. But those findings still wouldn’t account for the more recent changes in behavior Western officials say they’ve noticed, against the backdrop of his disastrous war in Ukraine.

Indeed, it is hard for anyone to see the videos of Putin’s pronouncements this week or the images of him taking social-distancing to absurd degrees or the sheer consequences of his decision-making without thinking that this man with command of a million-strong military force and a nuclear arsenal is not well.