To the myth that Democrats can count on people of color to cruise to majorities, Galston and Kamarck add another splash of cold water about ideology. The electorate, however tinted, is not becoming more progressive. Those who consider themselves conservative or moderate outnumber those who say they’re liberal or progressive. Only 9 percent of voters say they approve of the policies of Bernie Sanders or AOC. On no issue is this myth more damaging to Democrats than on crime and policing. Kamarck and Galston quote Rep. Jim Clyburn to the effect that the “defund the police” slogan probably cost the Democrats 12 congressional seats in 2020. Even among African Americans, the group most likely to hold critical views of policing, shrinking police forces or cutting funding (as opposed to reform) is unpopular. In Minneapolis, an initiative to replace the police force with a “department of community safety and violence prevention” was defeated in 2021. Among African Americans, 75 percent were opposed.

Democrats, the authors argue, must shake off their illusions about the electorate. We are both extremely polarized and closely divided. Our national elections are determined by tiny margins in key states, and that means, yes, the party should tack to the center. Galston and Kamarck ask Democrats to look at Biden’s victory and draw the correct lessons. How did Biden win? By gaining votes among certain key constituencies—he earned 48 percent of the male vote, up from Clinton’s 41 percent, including 31 percent of white working-class men, which improved on Clinton’s anemic 23 percent. “Biden moved five crucial states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) from the Republican to the Democratic column by making large gains among swing voters in the heart of the electorate, especially moderates and independents.”