In a sense, this is the story of both sides of the Atlantic. The United States and Europe can see the new world coming and the logical consequences that entails: more autonomy and more competition. The Biden administration, like the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations before it, sees the need to pivot its focus toward Asia and for Europe to do more to look after itself. The Europeans, too, can see the tide of American power turning. Yet, for now, both are content to plod along in the shallows, ignoring the currents pulling events around them.

In his inaugural address, Biden’s message to the world was that America had been tested, but had come back stronger as a result. The country would, he said, “lead not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example.” America, he was saying, was ready to resume its role as leader of the free world, a “trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.”

Rereading these lines today, in light of the Ukraine crisis, you can conclude that he has partly made good on his promise, despite the debacle in Afghanistan. He has shepherded the West into a unified position on Ukraine through careful and conciliatory diplomacy. Yet Russia’s challenge to the West today, as it amasses its troops on Ukraine’s borders, is predicated on its belief that American power is retreating, and with it the power of its example. Europe’s response, however, has been to reveal how powerful America remains. The truth is that it’s possible for both sentiments to be true at the same time.