Even if Trump doesn’t run, there is no lane for Hogan. The top alternative options are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence, two men whose conservative credentials are not in question. Anti-Trump GOP voters could choose either, but Pence’s refusal to humor Trump’s election delusions means he would be the default “anti-Trump” candidate. What does Hogan offer GOP voters that Pence does not, aside from supporting abortion (which isn’t exactly a popular stance in the GOP)? It isn’t clear.

Kasich scored just 13.8% of the vote during the 2016 primary, and he only got that much because he stayed in long after it was clear he had no shot at winning. He won just one state, his home state of Ohio. That was in a wide-open primary contest, which the 2024 race likely will not be. Even in the unlikely event that Trump, DeSantis, and Pence all choose not to run, there will probably also be second-tier candidates who are actually conservative, such as Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton or South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Hogan has no path to victory.