A Russian invasion of Ukraine could also cause oil prices to shoot up and translate into direct pain at the pump for US drivers. High gas prices, currently averaging $3.48 according to the American Automobile Association, have been a contributing factor to Biden’s fall in popularity. The President cannot afford a crisis with the potential to push them even higher just days after key data on Thursday showed that inflation rose 7.5%, in the worst such figures since 1982.
A Russian invasion could also cause stocks to tumble in a way that would hit voter perceptions of economic security and prosperity, deepening worries that would further bite into Democratic hopes of staving off a rout in an election that could hand the House of Representatives and the Senate to Republicans. Then there is a psychological and political backlash that Biden could face with an already disgruntled electorate if a Russian invasion of Ukraine added to the impression of a world racing out of control in ways that make him, and the US, look outmaneuvered.
Republicans have already been trying to paint Biden as weak and give the impression that what have been robust US efforts to convince Putin not to invade — including the readying of the most painful sanctions the US and the West have ever imposed on Moscow — have failed to influence the Russian leader. Ex-President Donald Trump is making an argument that will become familiar if an invasion does occur. He claimed in a Fox interview on Saturday that Putin had been encouraged to challenge the United States because of the Biden’s team’s chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan.
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