The fact is, there are more factors pointing toward a Democratic loss than a Democratic win. Here are five:

1. The price of gas. Use it as a stand-in for the larger issue of inflation. The price of gas, and inflation in general, is not an issue like guns or abortion that resonates particularly with one party. It is an everybody issue, and the indications are it will hurt Democrats in November.

2. Joe Biden’s current job approval rating. The president’s job approval rating is a key factor in midterm election results. And just today, Biden’s approval dipped below 40% for the first time in the RealClearPolitics average of polls: 39.8% approve, versus 54.4% disapprove. Just remember this from a recent newsletter: “The Gallup organization has looked at midterm results going back to 1946. In elections where the president’s job approval rating was above 50%, Gallup said in a 2018 article, his party’s midterm losses in the House averaged 14 seats. But in elections where the president’s job approval rating was below 50%, the losses averaged 37 seats.”

3. Joe Biden’s future job approval rating. Yes, Biden is low now, but might his approval rise in coming months, enough to rescue his party in November? That is very, very unlikely. “Looking back more than 70 years, there hasn’t been a single president who substantially improved his job approval rating from late January/early February of a midterm election year to late October/early November,” wrote elections analyst Nathan Gonzales. Instead, Gonzales noted that most presidents’ job approval rating actually fell in the months preceding midterm elections.