By the numbers: That explains why forecasters surveyed by FactSet were projecting only 162,500 jobs added in January, which would be the weakest since December 2020. There is some reason to think the number could turn out to be significantly worse than that.

In early January, 8.75 million people Americans said they were not working because they were sick with COVID or caring for someone who was sick with COVID, according to a Census survey, up from 2.96 million in early December.

Andrew Hunter with Capital Economics, for example, projects that the surge in COVID cases will reduce payroll growth enough to leave net job creation at negative 200,000.

The best hope for the job market—and the narrative Biden advisers aim to reinforce—is that any contraction in employment reported in the January is rapidly reversed as the Omicron case counts plunge.