Trouble is, smiling upon a pol for screwing up the hated opposition party’s agenda is not the same as voting to reelect her. According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of Sinema’s voting during her two years in the Senate when Trump was president, she voted with the 45th president half the time. That was about the same as Manchin’s level, but far lower than nearly all Republicans. The GOP is a party with extremely low tolerance for dissidence. The Republican voters who give Sinema favorable ratings can’t cross over to support her in a Democratic primary, and aren’t going to vote for her in a general election against an actual Republican. And why should they? Whatever else she isn’t, Sinema is a bisexual, religiously indifferent, pro-choice politician. By definition she is anathema to many, perhaps a majority of, Arizona Republicans. Sure, she could run for reelection in 2024 as an independent, but that’s a difficult row to hoe against two major-party nominees in a closely contested state where voters feel no need to create coalitions across party lines.
Whether you view her as a brave and principled dissident or a scurrilous traitor, Sinema is probably, from a political point of view, toast. Yes, it’s a long time until 2024, but unless she turns herself and Manchin around quickly, memories will last of the eccentric Arizonan who had no compelling political motives for dropping a hammer on her president and her party but did so anyway for what appeared to be an extended act of exhibitionism. Few members of either of America’s major parties like a turncoat in this era of partisan polarization. Republicans won’t save Sinema for professing an independence none of them profess for a single minute.
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