Congress passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill and one aimed at securing U.S. trade in semiconductors, but no bipartisan Covid legislation. By July, more than 50% of Americans adults were fully vaccinated, but by the end of the year there were three—not four—Covid vaccines. China offered an emissions reduction but not in exchange for ending U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. North Korea tested an intercontinental missile, but it was hypersonic, not ballistic. While traditional Democrats and the party’s progressives argued about policy, personnel and bipartisanship, Mr. Biden didn’t govern as a normal liberal.

The last came from my mistaken belief that Mr. Biden would be at least minimally effective in the Oval Office, leading to my four biggest miscalls. His approval rating is 43% today, not 51%. There’s no U.S.-U.K. trade deal, nor is the West effectively countering Chinese intellectual property theft or its Belt and Road Initiative. One cabinet nominee was formally withdrawn from consideration, not two.