Manchin may have just killed transformational liberalism for a decade

What’s important to realize is that this doesn’t merely foreclose the chances of Democrats getting something transformational passed this year, but it likely blocks them from doing so for the rest of the Biden presidency, and perhaps for the rest of the decade. That is, Republicans are almost certain to retake control of at least the House next year given the historical performance of the party in power during midterms and Biden’s low approval ratings. So that means the earliest shot Democrats would have to unify control of Washington and have another go at it would be in 2025. However, traditionally, liberals have been able to pass transformational legislation with massive majorities (think of New Deal and Great Society) and after multiple wave elections (see Obamacare). It’s going to be difficult for Democrats to not only get Biden reelected (or Vice President Kamala Harris), but to do so in convincing enough fashion to pass the sort of sweeping legislation that they want to. And obviously, that won’t be possible if Republicans win in 2024. Furthermore, if a Republican who wins in 2025 were to get reelected, it could be 2033 before Democrats get another opportunity to pass something as sweeping as they tried to this year.

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