Progressives are already moaning about the battle in Congress over Biden’s economic agenda; Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told the New York Times this weekend the negotiations have been “demoralizing.” The left will be infuriated by the Build Back Better law, should it ever pass, because of what will get cut from a final compromise. Progressives are planning primary challenges against incumbent moderate Democrats, which will strain resources and trust, and likely cost congressional seats.

Each faction in the party, of course, will attempt to drive its reset, with progressives urging the mobilization of young and non-white voters while moderate Democrats argue for persuasion of the white working-class voters the party has lost.

Should Biden step down, 2023 will be pretty awful for Democrats, as a new presidential contest — in the face of substantial losses in the 2022 elections — will deepen party divides. But what would make it far more disruptive is Pelosi’s departure. (Though not certain, it is expected.) And like Biden, if she is leaving, she surely doesn’t want voters to know that before next year. Pelosi is a master tactician able to unite squabbling Democrats in ways no one else in her party can, so her absence would be an incalculable loss if Democrats are facing minority status with a lame-duck president.

At that point, when a new GOP majority in the House looks to impeach President Biden, it will be the least of the Democrats’ worries.