Stephanie Webster, the owner of Oakley Wines in Cincinnati, told me that she’s already dotted the alleyway that abuts her restaurant with heaters for maximum warmth‚ but she’s not sure how many of her patrons will actually want to linger in the cold for chardonnay and charcuterie. The temperature has already sneaked into the 40s some nights, and she has seen just one-quarter of the outdoor diners she had at this point last year. Pisticci, a neighborhood Italian joint in Manhattan, has so many tables outside that the restaurant’s capacity is double what it was before the pandemic, according to its manager, Jay Schmidt. After braving blizzards to serve diners last winter, he’s setting boundaries this year. When it gets into the 20s or below, outdoor dining will be a no-go. “At a certain point, it becomes a staff safety issue,” he told me. “I don’t want anyone slipping on the deck.”

Restaurants aren’t ready to give up on street dining because, yes, plenty of Americans are still afraid to eat inside. Every week, the polling firm Morning Consult tracks public sentiments about going into restaurants. People are feeling better about eating inside now than they were in August, its surveys find, but still, as of last week, one-third of adults aren’t yet comfortable with the idea. That rate could still change quite a bit, depending on what happens to coronavirus cases, and how cold it gets, going forward. If yet another pandemic wave is on its way—unfortunately, a very real possibility—those street cafés could be fuller than you’d think. A really bad winter, though, could nudge diners through the door. “A lot of people need to rip the Band-Aid off,” Schmidt said. “Minus-12 will do that.”