History aside, the case that Harris can be handily defeated in the 2024 primaries appears largely based on negative perceptions of her 2020 presidential campaign, in which she was said to display vacillation on policy positions, uneven debate performances, and an inability to identify an electoral base. Most of all, she never succeeded in overcoming Joe Biden’s powerful support among the Black voters she absolutely had to have for a viable candidacy.
Assuming (as is safe to do) that if Biden decides to retire Harris will run as his chosen successor and the bearer of his administration’s legacy, these 2020 handicaps will mostly just go away when it comes to the Democratic nominating process. It is extremely likely that Harris, who is well-positioned in her party’s center of gravity between self-conscious progressives and moderates, will inherit much of Biden’s personal following and particularly his base of support among Black voters (and probably her fellow Asian-Americans as well). She will have her own administration’s policy record and policy development apparatus to generate a more stable message than she was able to generate on the fly in 2020. And as the Establishment candidate, she should not have serious problems raising enough money and attracting enough expertise to run a highly professional campaign. None of these enhancements mean she will become the 47th president without some skill and luck. But it should be enough to carry her to the nomination, even if, like so many early front-runners in both major parties, she begins the cycle with serious electability questions.
It’s not as though, moreover, there is some evident Democratic alternative for 2024 that will just blow her away on the winds of charisma, popularity, and electability.
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