With 38 months of Biden’s term remaining, stabilizing his presidency is a national imperative: Cold-eyed enemies of this nation are assessing him. Also, the weaker he seems politically, the more likely his predecessor is to seek a second term, thereby delaying restoration of the two-party system: Today’s tremulous GOP hardly counts.

Furthermore, it is in the Democratic Party’s interest for Biden to begin succeeding, and soon. That would make an early decision by him to retire in January 2025 seem statesmanlike rather than like bowing to failure. If such a decision were to come, say, late in 2023, Democrats would face an awkward fact: Vice President Harris.

As a “woman of color,” she would excite progressives obsessed with identity politics, but she would be a high-risk 2024 nominee. Harris has said that dropping out of the competition for the 2020 nomination was “one of the hardest decisions of my life.” Actually, the Democratic nominating electorate made it easy: Voters’ unenthusiastic opinion of her was why she left the race 62 days before the first votes were cast in Iowa.