Republican doubts about the 2020 election are nearly as strong now as they were shortly after the election itself. In a poll conducted immediately after Biden secured an electoral victory, 82% of Republicans said Joe Biden did not legitimately win, and that percentage has barely dropped. Three in four Republicans (74%) in this week’s poll say Joe Biden was not the legitimate winner, just an eight-percentage-point drop since last November. In addition, one in five Republicans say they still believe it is somewhat or very likely that Trump will be reinstated in the White House by the end of the year – a scenario that has no precedent.

The former president’s threat that his supporters will not vote in future elections isn’t supported by the self-reports of vote likelihood in this poll. Registered Republican voters who distrust the 2020 election results are more likely to say they are very likely to vote in 2022 than are registered Republicans overall. (The sample size for registered Republicans who say they trust the 2020 outcome was too small to analyze.) Registered Democrats are about as likely as registered Republicans to say they are very likely to vote in 2022.