EARLY VOTE LAGS IN VIRGINIA, giving Democrats heartburn in a crucial contest for governor. Early voting in person and by mail has been available since Sept. 17, but so far turnout has been sluggish. Compared with the high-enthusiasm 2020 presidential election, early voter turnout is down around two-thirds from the same date of last year’s cycle, according to data tracked by Republican political strategist John Couvillon. In-person early voting is down 63%, while mail ballots are down by around 73%. The final gap between the previous presidential-to-gubernatorial election series in 2016-17 was 34%. There is no expectation that turnout in an off-year election would match a presidential year, but current turnout is notably sluggish.

The comparison to previous cycles has limits. In 2017, fewer than 200,000 people voted early in Virginia. This year, more than 275,000 already have—a result of expanded voting options and changing voter behavior during the pandemic. Both parties are encouraging their voters to vote early, but Democrats appear to have the early advantage. A CBS News poll released this week showed that Democrat Terry McAuliffe led Republican Glenn Youngkin 61%-37% among those who said they had already voted.