But is a compromise possible? The linkage standoff in the House obscures the fact that the American Families Plan itself can’t pass unless both Manchin and Sinema support it. It also can’t pass if at least half of the House moderates stand their ground.

The wild card? More than a few House and Senate Democrats would love to see the American Families Plan go down, so they don’t have to weather the attack ads from Republicans, but they’d prefer that Manchin and Sinema take the heat for wielding the knife. We may not know who in the caucus feels that way, but rest assured: Pelosi and Chuck Schumer do. Which is how we got the Monday deadline.

Manchin and Sinema are different animals with different goals. Manchin is an old-school West Virginia Democrat of the sort that once dominated that poor and now deep-red state. He seems to genuinely want the infrastructure bill. He isn’t averse to spending money. But the American Families Plan is vast and left-wing. He has mused aloud about putting the whole thing off until 2022, which would add to the anguish of Dems worried about facing the voters.

The smart money says that Manchin will happily make a deal, but it may be a deal that The Squad would find insulting. AOC hasn’t helped matters by constantly attacking Manchin, tweeting this month that he sold out to oil lobbyists and that his skepticism about the bill was “killing people.”