Further, since World War II, only twice has the president’s party gained seats in the midterm elections – in 1998 during the Clinton administration and then in 2002 during the George W. Bush administration. To note, both presidents had approval ratings above 60 percent and even so saw only meager House seat gains.

According to a 2018 Gallup analysis of midterm seat gains and losses, in midterm elections since 1946, the average loss for the president’s party is 25 U.S. House seats – presidents with an approval below 50 percent see their party lose an average of 37 House seats.

Taken together with the potential for increased electoral backlash against Democrats – and possibly even a wave election – the Senate could also be in play as well, notwithstanding the number of seats that Republicans would have to flip.

In short, by catering to the left wing of the party, the Biden administration risks enhancing the likelihood of an outcome in the midterms similar to 1994 and 2010, when similar big government initiatives cost the Democrats control of Congress.