It’s unclear whether the circumstances in Afghanistan are entirely responsible for the roughly 3-point decline in Biden’s approval rating since Aug. 5, given the continued prevalence of the delta variant in the U.S. Moreover, as I wrote earlier in August, some of Biden’s dip in approval could be related to growing economic concerns and a souring among some independent voters. That said, there’s no question that at least part of Biden’s decline in approval has been fueled by what’s happened in Afghanistan. And it could fall even more. A pair of suicide bombers killed at least 60 Afghans and 12 American troops outside the Kabul airport yesterday, an attack that ISIS-K claimed responsibility for and which could further sour American public opinion on Biden’s handling of the withdrawal.

As such, Biden’s approval rating might not bounce back just yet given how volatile the situation is in Afghanistan, but at the same time there is reason to believe it eventually will. That’s because polls conducted amid a high-profile event often show large shifts in opinion that then fade over time. We’ve also seen some reversion to the mean for recent presidents’ approval ratings after their ratings fell. Early in his presidency, Donald Trump fired then-FBI Director James Comey amid ongoing investigations of his administration for Russian interference in the 2016 election and then revealed classified intel to Russian officials in a meeting at the White House the next day. In the aftermath of these events, Trump’s approval rating fell from about 42 percent on May 9 to 38 percent in early June. But his approval rating then inched back up to around 40 percent later that month.