Pelosi underestimates her moderates

— Pelosi and Gottheimer spent hours trying to hammer out a deal that would essentially fold the budget vote into the roll call vote on the rule — basically, it would deem the budget as passed without having to hold a separate vote. In return for their support, moderates were offered the guarantee of a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by a deadline of Oct. 1.

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Yes, that would fall short of the BIF vote the Mod Squad demanded to have upfront before supporting the budget. BUT it would be a concession from Democratic leaders, who have sought to tie the BIF to the party’s larger $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. (Indeed, Pelosi has said over and over again that BIF will not pass before the reconciliation bill.)

— Talks broke down as negotiations stretched late into Monday night and members grew tired and grumpy.

— Right now, there is no deal. And while it appears that some moderates are open to this possible accord, others want to hold the line for better terms. Heather and Sarah report that as many as five moderates are still opposed to the tentative detente — and Pelosi can lose only three.

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