Christopher Caldwell wrote an essay recently in The Times, about the aftermath of the 2020 election, in which he dismissed fears of a real Trump coup on the grounds of Trumpian incapacity: He “ended his presidency as unfamiliar with its powers as with its responsibilities.” To which Matthew Yglesias retorted that he was “over” these “Trump is too dumb to do anything pernicious takes. He has managed to very effectively wield influence within Republican Party politics for many years now!”

But two things can both be true at once: Trump has a certain kind of political genius and a strong personal bond with the Republican base, and Trump’s influence ebbs the further you get from the world of rhetoric and personal identification. So Trump could shift official party priorities on entitlements or infrastructure, but he couldn’t actually get a health care or infrastructure bill passed. Trump could force Republicans to make excuses for his corruption, but he couldn’t get Mitch McConnell to endorse withdrawal from Afghanistan, or get his generals to do it.

And Trump could encourage a widespread belief that he was the victim of massive voter fraud, inspiring his most ardent fans to storm the Capitol — but he couldn’t get Republican state legislatures or Republican-appointed judges or his own Justice Department to begin to go along with his election-overturning efforts.