Trump's path back to the presidency

That's because Trump's speech on Sunday did precisely what his April remarks at Mar-a-Lago failed to do: It wove together his personal resentment about the results of the 2020 election with ferocious attacks on Joe Biden and the Democrats, portraying his partisan opponents as the enemies of all Republicans and even of all patriotic Americans. The unified forces of corruption who hate America and the police, and who love criminals and illegal immigrants and denouncing the country as incorrigibly racist, conspired to cheat in the presidential contest, and the media, the courts, and cowards in his own party played along, depriving everyone else of his leadership. This is Trump's message in 2016 with his own loss in 2020 now added to the list of perfidies and his own administration's long list of (supposed) accomplishments brought in as well... If Trump spends the next two years pushing this blame-everything-bad-on-Biden message, he will be very well placed to sweep the Republican primaries and become the GOP's standard-bearer. If you doubt it, ask yourself what he would have to do to fall behind DeSantis or any other challenger over the next couple of years. The Republican base knows exactly who Trump is, and they love him anyway. There's no sign of that changing, even if he ends up being charged in the ongoing criminal investigation in New York City that's looking into his finances. Such an eventuality would merely provide Trump with a longer list of enemies to excoriate as he works on transforming himself in the eyes of his supporters into a cross between Robin Hood and John Dillinger. How would Trump do in the general election? That will depend on numerous other factors that won't come into focus for some time: How is the economy doing? What has Biden accomplished and has it proven popular? Has violent crime receded or persisted and worsened? Have events elsewhere in the world become a drag on the administration? These and other contingencies will help to determine whether Trump's message of anger, resentment, and grievance gains enough traction to power him through to a somewhat stronger showing than he managed in 2020. That's all it would take to hand the White House back to him, even without any vote-counting shenanigans.
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