That blunt assessment of Tshibaka reflects Murkowski’s combination of confidence and wariness ahead of what's shaping up as an unpleasant midterm campaign for her. She’s the only GOP incumbent senator to earn Trump’s ire this year after voting to convict him in his second impeachment trial, a move that got her censured by her state party. He has vowed to campaign against her in person. Most of her colleagues believe she's leaning toward seeking a fourth term, given her fundraising and private remarks to them as well as donors. Murkowski, however, is quiet about her plans... National Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, are backing Murkowski’s campaign — not an insignificant decision given her penchant for bucking the party. Senate Leadership Fund, a McConnell-aligned super PAC, endorsed her this spring. These moves are notable because the seat is relatively safe for Republicans, regardless of whether she runs again. The state has reformed its electoral system into a top-four jungle primary, which insulates Murkowski from losing a head-to-head with Tshibaka.