Demographics were expected to push Florida left. Instead, they nudged it to the right.

Republicans often win votes from Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans by portraying Democrats as socialists or communists. Many Cuban Americans either fled the Castro regime in Cuba or know someone who did, and many new arrivals from South America have similar experiences. As Lillian Guerra, a historian of Cuba at the University of Florida, told me, “the Cold War seems to be over everywhere else, but it’s never been in Florida.” So when Trump claimed that Democrats were socialists, many Florida Latinos listened — and voted for him. Latinos aren’t a permanent Republican constituency. Most voted for President Biden in 2020, and Equis Research — a Democratic firm — found that some Latinos supported Trump because they approved of how he managed the economy. Top Democrats hope that, if Biden handles the recovery from this recession well, they’ll regain some of these voters. But for now, the Florida GOP has found messages that move the needle with the state’s diverse Latino population. And that, too, has helped them stave off Democratic gains.
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