How the GOP could splinter (or stay the same) after Cheney's ouster

As far as the ideological leanings of the breakaway coalition go, political scientists I talked with told me to expect it to be composed of “Trump-skeptical moderates” and “anti-Trumpers” — two of the five wings of the Republican Party Perry Bacon Jr. previously described for FiveThirtyEight. That’s to say, this isn’t even close to the majority of the GOP, and reports so far say Republicans on board with this effort are generally fiscally conservative but more centrist on cultural issues. Because of this, we wouldn’t be surprised if some Democrats joined this effort, too. Last year, the Pew Research Center found that conservative and moderate voters make up about half (51 percent) of the Democratic electorate, so if there’s potential for this third breakaway party to have any hope of viability, it needs it to be bipartisan, too. “For this to work, you’d have to bring on some Democrats, and it’d be the type of people who are at odds with the more progressive … wing of the party,” said Robert Saldin, a political science professor at the University of Montana. That said, Saldin cautioned me that it’s hard to imagine flocks of Democrats moving in this direction, short of the progressive wing gaining control of the party. “The type of Democrat who one could imagine linking up with the signers of that letter already has a big seat at the table in a Biden-led Democratic Party,” he added. And regarding the Republicans likely joining this effort, Saldin said, they do “not constitute the beating heart of today’s GOP” since conservatism now is largely defined by dedication to Trump.
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