The GOP’s level of control, especially in critical battleground states, may be sufficient to gain the five extra seats they would need to reclaim the majority. “If people voted exactly as they did in 2020 in Democratic and Republican wins, redistricting might give Republicans enough advantage to retake the House, but it depends so much on details,” said Sam Wang, founder of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. There is one problem for Republicans compared to a decade ago, when a round of redistricting helped the GOP lock in gains. “The number of places where [Republicans] can draw a partisan advantage is considerably smaller than 2011,” he said. He estimated that the advantage Republicans hold over Democrats is roughly half as substantial as it was a decade ago, when Republican-led legislatures drew maps that let them control the House for eight years.