And both in the White House and the halls of Congress, memories are only too clear of past presidents who, only two years after inauguration, lost legislative majorities in midterm elections: Donald Trump in 2018, Barack Obama in 2010, George W. Bush in 2006 and Bill Clinton in 1994.

In the face of that risk, presidents have essentially two options: to govern more from the center, seeking consensus while protecting their majority; or to bet everything on an ambitious attempt to push major reforms through early, even at the risk of losing control of Congress.

With the 2022 midterm elections just 19 months away, Biden has made his choice clear: he wants to move quickly with ambitious plans to fundamentally transform the United States.

Time is short. While Biden — already the oldest US president ever at 78 — says he plans to run again in 2024, Axelrod believes the chances of that are “pretty remote,” as he said on the Hacks on Tap podcast he co-hosts with Republican Mike Murphy.