Over a third of Republicans don't want the COVID vaccine. So what next?

“What’s happened, particularly for Republicans, is that ‘definitely not’ group has not gotten smaller,” Hamel said. “It has stayed about the same. … We are sort of seeing a persistent share of the public overall, but particularly among Republicans that aren’t budging and saying ‘no, I definitely don’t want it.'”

If Republicans decline the shots in numbers that match the polling, it may be more difficult to reach a state of herd immunity, that is, when enough people in a community are protected from contracting COVID-19 because they’ve either recovered from it or have been vaccinated, according to the CDC. On Wednesday, Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, said herd immunity for the virus would likely require 70% to 85% of the population to be vaccinated…

Republicans, who are more likely than other ideological groups to say getting vaccinated is a personal choice rather than a public responsibility, are more likely to respond to messages about how it benefits them personally, Hamel said. They are less likely than other ideological groups to trust the information from the government, perhaps even less so when it is run by Democrats.

Hamel’s polling nonetheless shows messaging that is likely to coax Republicans to get their shots is no different than what is persuasive for any other group: citing the efficacy of the vaccine, how it will prevent them from getting sick, and how it’s the quickest means of returning to normal life.