Why the very conservative bloc is so important to Trump

The vast majority of extremely conservative (82%) and fairly conservative (75%) Republicans want Trump to run in 2024. These are huge numbers for Trump in the state with the first-in-the-nation primary.

If anything, the right-wing of the Republican Party has become more favorably inclined to want Trump to run in 2024 over the last month. Since late January and Trump’s acquittal in his Senate impeachment trial, fairly conservative Republican support for Trump running again is up 20 points. It’s up 5 points among extremely conservative Republicans, who were already quite inclined to say Trump should have a 2024 bid.

Now compare the right half of the party to the center-half. Moderates and somewhat conservatives are much more skeptical of Trump 2024. Slightly less than a third in either group want Trump to run again.

Amazingly, Trump’s support for a 2024 bid now among the less conservative faction of the GOP seems smaller in New Hampshire than the percentage of the vote he received the last election he ran as a non-incumbent (i.e. during the 2016 primary season).