“We must win the redistricting war,” said Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, a leading candidate to chair the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It is the battlefield that will determine the House majority. Period, full stop. It’s absolutely critical.”

It could be months before Census apportionment data shows exactly which states will gain and lose seats, and it will take even longer to gauge the impact of the maps, from those drawn by partisan state legislators to commission-drawn maps in places like Michigan and New York. But already, there are a few members of Congress who will almost certainly find themselves in more challenging terrain in 2022. This redraw will be most painful in the roughly ten states which are on track to lose a district, particularly ones with smaller populations. That could mean bare-knuckled maneuvering between the two Democrats in Rhode Island and three Republicans in West Virginia — states likely to drop a seat.

Here are the members who are already most at risk in the redraw, according to interviews with more than a dozen lawmakers, operatives and map makers in both parties across seven states.