The election is Biden's to lose

The Democrats, of course, don’t want to get too cocky or comfortable. The party has been in this place before. This time four years ago, Hillary Clinton boasted a seven-point lead. The New York Times’s election team calculated that Clinton had a 91 per cent chance of being the next President. We all know how that story turned out; by the time election night was over, Clinton phoned Trump to concede the race and Democrats nationwide were balling their eyes out in grief.

With this recent history in mind, Joe Biden isn’t taking anything for granted. But his team is growing more confident that the dynamics of the race have solidified to the point where Trump won’t have the time to recuperate. This doesn’t mean Biden is being complacent like Hillary was. His campaign is saturating the airwaves in conservative parts of Ohio, a state Trump won four years ago by an eight-point margin. The former vice president will be traveling to Arizona this Thursday in an attempt to persuade suburban voters around Phoenix that another four years of Trump would be a disaster for the country (a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won Arizona in a quarter of a century). Georgia, the reliably red-state, no longer looks as reliable for Republicans— the Biden campaign knows this, which is why they continue to run ads in the state.