Pennsylvania: Biden 54, Trump 42

Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for president stands at 54% for Biden and 42% for Trump. Another 1% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% are undecided. Biden maintains a sizable lead when likely voter models are applied. A model based on a somewhat higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 54% for Biden and 43% for Trump, while one reflecting lower turnout has it at 53% for Biden and 45% for Trump.

The results show a wider gap than Monmouth’s poll one month ago, when Biden held a 49% to 45% lead among registered voters. The current race standing is more in line with Monmouth’s July poll, which had it at 53% Biden to 40% Trump. A significantly larger number of voters say Biden (60%) has at least some understanding of their day to day concerns than say the same about Trump (45%).

“If any recent event moved the needle it was more likely last week’s debate than the president’s Covid diagnosis. What seems to be more important than either event, though, is voters’ focus on which candidate they trust more on the issues that keep them up at night,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.