Scott and Haley spoke late in the night, during the hour that broadcast networks aired the convention, which suggests that the event’s organizers wanted a broad universe of potential voters to hear the two speakers. But in tone and content, both spoke to the fringes of the president’s coalition—the Republicans who need to be persuaded to hold their nose and vote for Trump, the Republicans and independents who might not vote for him at all. Haley and Scott may be effective messengers, and they might help Trump win. They’re not necessarily the future of his party, though.

Many Republicans like Scott and Haley, traditional politicians who focused on expanding opportunity, lowering taxes, and bringing the country together, ran against Trump in 2016. They all lost. And the Republican base doesn’t even prefer their less combative political style within the Trump family. In public appearances and carefully managed relationships with the media, Ivanka Trump has long tried to soften the president’s most inflammatory rhetoric; to distance herself from his most unpopular policies. But as my colleague McKay Coppins has written, Don Jr., who imitates the president’s language and manner, has become his father’s “most skilled warm-up act” and most natural political successor. Way-too-early polls of the 2024 Republican primary tend to show Don Jr. well ahead of Ivanka in the race for the nomination.