But the conclusion that populists’ shambolic handling of this crisis must be bad for populism as a whole is ultimately flawed. For one thing, it ignores the fact that populism has been a permanent feature of modern democratic politics—particularly in Europe and Latin America—for decades. Even if leaders the likes of Trump and Bolsonaro were to lose power, that wouldn’t necessarily mean their exit from politics full stop. As populist figures in Britain, Germany, and Italy have shown, they can prove just as effective on the sidelines, simply by setting the terms of public debate. Though they may leave office, their ideas and provocations have a much longer shelf life.

The notion that populism is in peril also overlooks all the ways in which the pandemic has been a boon for this brand of politics. It led to the closure of the European Union’s internal borders, emboldening right-wing populists who have challenged freedom of movement on the continent, and it demonstrated the importance of the nation-state over and above any international body. “The Europe that for 30 years I thought was irreversible, it reversed in an afternoon,” Michael Ignatieff, the president of the Central European University in Budapest and Vienna and the former leader of the Liberal Party in Canada, told me. “When citizens are in deep trouble … they turn to the political institution that grants them their passports and is supposed to protect them, and that is the nation-state. Everybody does: Liberal states, authoritarian states, conservative states, progressive states—they all go back to the nation-state.”…

Yet perhaps the greatest reason that populism isn’t going anywhere is what might come next. A historic recession is already under way, and when our societies do overcome the ongoing health crisis, they will still have to contend with mass unemployment and poverty—a situation populists (particularly those who opposed national shutdowns on economic grounds) will no doubt exploit. Prolonged downturns have been proved to increase political fragmentation and polarization, providing ripe conditions for antiestablishment rhetoric to thrive.