The U.S. should sanction Russia if Putin sends forces to Belarus

Well, while it’s unlikely that Russia would deploy conventional forces to Belarus, Putin has likely already deployed military intelligence teams. A targeted crackdown against protest leaders and prominent dissidents is most likely to follow. The United States should not watch idly. While the Trump administration has now, albeit belatedly, condemned Lukashenko, no U.S. sanctions have yet been threatened either on him or Putin. That strikes an unfortunate contrast with the normally docile European Union, which has agreed to move ahead with sanctions.

U.S. leadership matters for two reasons. First, in service of Belarusian human rights and America’s credibility as global leader of the post-war liberal international order. Second, because Putin will use his support to Lukashenko as a pivot upon which to advance his ultimate interest in absorbing Belarus as part of Russia. Were that absorption to occur, it would mean Russian forces almost totally surrounding the Baltics and compressing Poland from two sides. In short, it would add to an already significant challenge for NATO war planners.