The U.S. coronavirus death toll is expected to pass 180,000 and could reach 200,000 by Sept. 5, according to modelers whose forecasts are shared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—a somber prediction as the country tries to battle the virus and revitalize the economy.

U.S. deaths currently number at least 169,313, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Total infections exceed 5.3 million, with the new cases logged Friday topping 60,000 after two days of over 50,000 new cases, according to the Johns Hopkins data. The U.S. total represents about a quarter of the cases world-wide, which surpassed 21 million.

California became the first U.S. state to report more than 600,000 confirmed coronavirus cases. Deaths there exceed 11,000. Meanwhile, in New York, once the U.S.’s epicenter of the virus., Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday hospitalizations in the state had dropped to 523, the lowest since March 17. Mr. Cuomo also said the state on Friday set a new daily record for the number of Covid-19 tests reported at 88,668, with a 0.8% positivity rate.