The theory is that if Trump is defeated, Democrats led by an aging and diminished Biden will pursue an unpopular left-wing political agenda and inherit the pandemic, economic downturn, and civil unrest. Republicans would likely recover in the midterm elections in 2022, possibly regaining a chamber or two of Congress. This could put the party in a strong position to turn the page on Trump in 2024…

“The argument is basically whether the country could withstand the Left’s agenda for two years, especially if Schumer gets rid of the filibuster, if Biden wins, and the Senate goes down,” said a second Republican strategist. “Versus, can we wait another four years for the party to start to recover from Trump.”

One fear Republicans had of Trump’s 2016 candidacy was that he would reduce the party’s share of the Hispanic vote to something approximating its frequently single-digit percentage of the black vote. While Trump receives poor marks in most polls for his handling of race relations, that hasn’t happened. Trump slightly improved on Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance with minority voters, and Republican candidates continued to win between a quarter and a third of Latinos, even in the otherwise disappointing 2018 midterm elections.

But Republicans have taken a beating with college-educated, suburban white voters, once a reliable GOP constituency, since Trump became the face of the party.