Trump's historically strong with his base -- and that's his problem

Where Trump is weak is outside the Republican base. In the ABC/Washington Post (the numbers are similar for Monmouth and NBC News/Wall Street Journal), Trump’s at 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both of those are lower than any Republican at this point in ABC News/Washington Post polling dating back to 2000.

There is, in other words, a lot more potential support for Trump outside the core Republican base. Trump, though, doesn’t seem interested in making the effort.

If Trump doesn’t switch things up, he may find that the other side’s base is bigger than his. Biden is winning a larger share of Democrats in an average of live interview polls (including an NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist College poll) out this week (94%) than Trump is winning Republicans (92%). The average poll, as has been true for almost every year on record, measured more Democrats than Republicans in this country.