Mexico is frighteningly unprepared for the coronavirus

According to a prominent Mexican epidemiologist, who asked to remain anonymous because of possible hostility from government authorities, Mexico will see a spike in coronavirus cases in the next couple of weeks, and within a month the death toll will begin to rise significantly. “It’s not that Mexico isn’t taking the problem seriously enough. It’s that it did not take it seriously when it should have, and now we are starting to see community spread,” the doctor said. “From my perspective, we have all the conditions for this to turn into a tragedy, similar to Italy, if not worse.”

The government’s nonchalance may be the result of previous experience. In 2009, the Mexican government took severe measures to contain the spread of a new strain of swine flu. Public life was virtually shut down in the capital for several weeks, which took its toll on an already struggling economy in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Mexico suffered its first recession since 2009 last year, and government officials have indicated they do not want to overreact to the situation out of concern for the country’s economy. In a press conference last week, Hugo López-Gatell, Mexico’s deputy health minister, told reporters that “the [2009] economic loss was directly related, in the most part, to the disruption of tourism, trade and services. … It is so important, with very careful precision, not to take preemptive actions that do not correspond to the magnitude of the risk.”