The real race may be passing Elizabeth Warren by

But Ms. Warren, who has largely avoided engaging her opponents, is making perhaps the riskiest bet available: changing very little, largely declining to alter a 2020 primary approach often premised on self-branding as a “fighter” in a policy context but less often in a political one.

She can appear at times to be campaigning in a time capsule delivered from last year, running the race on her terms, largely independent of the changing circumstances. Her riff on a wealth tax for the ultrarich still lands (“Just two cents!” her crowds chant, cheering the policy’s tagline). Her supporters still hold signs aloft with purpose (“Win with Warren!”).

But what if it is not enough?

“Yeah, I don’t know,” Ms. Warren told reporters in Concord, when pressed on the early exits in her audience. “It seemed like, to me, a pretty enthusiastic crowd.”

Many Warren admirers remain almost preternaturally calm about her electoral position, deciding after a year of semi-permanent meta-punditry from voters that this is not the time to overreact to disappointing news.