That context helps to illuminate the stakes of the impeachment fight. So long as presidents fear that they will be impeached for pressuring foreign regimes to discredit their likely political opponents in upcoming elections, there will be a strong disincentive to exploit official powers for political gain and to invite foreign election interference. Whereas votes against impeachment and removal will set the opposite precedent: that Congress will impose no check on presidents using official powers to benefit their reelection chances by pressuring foreign regimes to undermine political opponents.

How might Trump respond to the latter outcome? One possibility is that Trump will wait for Democrats to choose a nominee, survey the foreign regimes that he can most effectively influence with his discretion over U.S. foreign policy, and encourage them to take actions that weaken the candidacy of his 2020 challenger…

If the House nevertheless votes down impeachment, or if the Senate declines to convict, what seems more likely? That Trump will stop pressuring foreign regimes to undermine his challenger in the next presidential election, or that, having faced no consequences, he will redouble his efforts to get that foreign help?