Most political analysts agree that under the present winner-take-all system of awarding electors, no Republican can win the White House without Texas and its 38 electoral votes. That is bad news for Republicans, because Texas appears to be solidly in play in 2020. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) recently told the Washington Post that the chances of Trump taking Texas are “by no means a given.” “The president’s reelection campaign needs to take Texas seriously,” he said. Observers of Texas politics agree. “I think what we saw in the 2018 elections and what we continue to see in the 2020 elections, is a much more competitive state electorally,” Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research for the Texas Politics Project, recently told the Houston Chronicle.

Under the current system, a narrow popular vote loss would deliver all 38 of Texas’ electoral votes to the Democrat in 2020. The result would likely be game over for the GOP‘s chances at the White House.

It’s not just Texas, either. In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott reports that more than 180,000 Puerto Ricans have arrived and registered to vote since the 2017 hurricanes. Previous surveys of Puerto Rican voters in Florida have shown that the overwhelming majority of them have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and so it’s not a stretch to say that they will probably support Democrats, at least in 2020. If Florida and its 29 electoral votes move from purple to solid blue, the Blue Wall would have 271 votes. And it would be all over for Republicans.