“People forget that Gary Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, won more votes as a Libertarian than the difference between Trump and Clinton in 11 states in 2016,” a Trump adviser told me. Johnson ended up with 3.3 percent of the national vote. Later, Johnson told me he thought that a lot of his votes came from Democrats disillusioned with Hillary Clinton and from people who normally wouldn’t have voted for president.
The Trump adviser told me that while in many states a Libertarian would probably draw more votes from Trump than from a Democrat, that might not always be the case. He points to a new poll in Amash’s home state of Michigan that shows Joe Biden’s lead among independent voters dropping from 13 percentage points to a tie when Amash is offered as an option. Biden’s lead in Michigan overall fell from 12 points in a head-to-head against Trump to only 6 points with Amash on the ballot.
Pollster Richard Czuba, who took the poll for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV, analyzed Amash’s impact for the News: “What he will do is give independent voters who don’t want to support President Trump an outlet to not vote for the Democrat. And if you look at who or what would be moving toward Amash, it is particularly independent men.”