Here’s one scenario, put forth by Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

Democrats flip Michigan and Pennsylvania, increase their stronghold in California, and narrow the loss in Texas — helping Dems win the popular vote by nearly 5 million votes.

But Trump narrowly holds onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — which Democrats are gunning for — and keeps the White House.

“His electoral coalition is stronger in the states that matter (the Midwest, most notably) than it is nationally,” said Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.