Trump's tariff spree comes with big electoral risks

A new report from Goldman Sachs shows that, while Trump may not distinguish friend from foe, U.S. voters certainly do. Last week, ignoring the counsel of his own advisers, Trump vowed to slap an escalating series of tariffs on Mexican goods if its government doesn’t cut off the flow of migrants from Central America heading to the U.S. border. On Sunday, the New York Times reported that Trump also considered putting levies on Australian aluminum, but was dissuaded. While Trump’s tough line against China does draw some support, the Goldman report shows that significantly more voters disapprove of the tariffs the president has applied—or threatened to apply—on imports from friendly nations.

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Furthermore, his protectionist trade policies haven’t produced the kind of political boost in critical swing states that his backers are depending on. “Voter approval on trade policy appears to be no higher in key competitive states than in other states,” Goldman finds, “and overall presidential approval in those states has declined by more than the national average.”

One reason why Trump’s trade policies haven’t lifted his approval rating is that, aside from the original $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports announced last June, voters have on balance disfavored every one of his subsequent trade actions, including recent tariffs on China. As this chart from the report illustrates, voters’ disapproval is particularly severe when it comes to tariffs targeting U.S. allies such as Canada and Mexico…

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